The starting 5

I was just sitting here watching the Holiday bowl (I’m rooting for the Ducks by the way - Can’t get much more intimidating than that) and my mind drifted (as it sometimes does) to the Reds starting rotation for 2009. And the thought hit me: I’m not as nervous about the pitching as I have been in recent years. Now, in the era since I started following the Reds I’ve been introduced to the likes of Greg Vaughn, Dante Bichette, Ken Griffey Jr, and Adam Dunn, among other prolific hitters. Never in recent memory have the Reds had a pitching staff that is shaping up to be as good as what they have for 2009. I’m not saying that they will be as dominating as the Yankees look like they will be with CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. But they will most definitely be better.

  In 2008 the Reds pitching staff combined for a 4.55 ERA (23^rd in MLB), 2 complete games (tied for 22^nd), and 6 shutouts (tied for 26^th). They also had 557 walks (14^th) and 1227 strikeouts (4^th). Keep in mind that these stats were not helped by the strange off years by Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. This was also the breakout year for Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez, and we can only expect their stats to get better.

     So as we look forward to 2009, who will we have in the rotation? Harang and Arroyo look like locks (even with their off years) because they are being paid too much to do anything else. They won’t be sitting in the bullpen. Cueto and Volquez are all but in the rotation – I think they will have to prove that they still belong but they do have the edge after the years that they had. So that leaves one last starting spot open for…who?

     Homer Bailey, Daryl Thompson, Adam Pettyjohn, Ramon Ramirez, and Micah Owings are all names that have been thrown out for consideration. Bailey, a highly touted prospect that fans have been looking forward to has not looked good. He did not handle a demotion well last year and has not shown willingness to get back to the bigs. I fully expect him to be traded by spring training. He was almost gone to the White Sox in the rumored Jermaine Dye deal, but even though that fell through I still suspect that management is still actively shopping him around. Thompson looked good in one start last year, but disastrous in the next two. I don’t think he is a big league pitcher, I see him starting the year at AA or AAA and maybe working up to the rotation by 2010. Pettyjohn was terrible in his one start – 2 IP, 8 runs on 7 hits. As much as I want to see a lefty in the rotation I don’t think he will be it. It’s very rare to see someone spend this many years in the minors and still make it. As much as I would like for him to be the exception, I don’t think it will happen.

    That leaves Ramirez and Owings. Ramirez had some decent numbers, but I am predicting that Owings gets the spot. After all, you don’t trade one of your best home grown players (Adam Dunn) away for someone unless you see some potential in them. Management obviously has their eye on him and I think the decision has been all but made to insert him in that spot. The only circumstances I see with him not getting the job is if he is still injured or there is a free agent signing.

      On the outside chance that there is money found to sign a starting pitcher, who might that lucky hurler be? The obvious choice is Mark Mulder, having played for Jocketty before in St. Louis. Not only that, but the price tag will be much cheaper since he is coming off the shoulder injury. A story came out this week saying that he will be throwing for scouts in early 2009, I wouldn’t expect any more news on the subject until then.

       The only other name I see out there (and yes, I am dreaming a bit here) is Andy Pettitte. Now, I will say up front that he is a favorite of mine and I would really love it if he came to play in Cincy. With the Yankees signing Burnett and Sabathia it looks like he is out of New York. Apparently he had an offer on the table but I think he took too long and now has nothing on the table. His price tag is a little higher than the Reds can afford ($16 million last year) but I do think that will be cut a lot no matter which team he goes to. One, it’s hard for teams to offer that much in this economy. And two, he’s getting a little older (36 years old) and is not as dominating as he once was. I don’t know if this would mean enough of a pay cut for Cincy to afford him though. Regardless of the odds against this signing ever happening, I really hope that somehow Jocketty can convince ownership to search their couch cushions for some spare change and sign him. It would be a major addition to the pitching staff, as well as provide some veteran leadership.

     Maybe my optimism is a far cry from reality. But for the first time as a Reds fan, I think I can honestly rest easy going into spring training with the rotation that we have.