Yes, I know I'm late to the party with this one, writing about something that happened last week. But I figured I'd throw my two cents out there since the news about the financial details just came out today. It turns out thathe two year deal is only worth $6.25 million: $2.25 in 2009 and $4 million in 2010. If he does here what he is capable of doing then I think that's a pretty good signing.
Firstly, let me say this: a major weakness of the Reds has been the leadoff spot. As I've mentioned before I grew up in an era where the Reds brought in many good hitters, but they never really had a run producer to complement them. Norris Hopper and Ryan Freel weren't bad fill-ins, but they were never everyday players, although I do like both of them and would be very happy if Hopper proved himself capable of handling it. We've had Dunn, Hatteberg, Reese and who knows how many others fill that leadoff spot, but nobody really stood out. I'm not sure yet if Taveras is the answer here, but at least they're trying now.
On to the numbers: Taveras batter .251 last year with 36 walks ( a career high I might add), 1 home run, 26 RBIs, 64 runs and 68 stolen bases. It's also a handy stat to know that he was only thrown out 7 times. He's got a little bit of speed. I've heard rumors from people close to him that say he got off his game plan a little bit, and it's true those numbers are down. In 2007 he hit .320, 21 BB, 2 HR, 24 RBI, 64 runs, and 33 SB. That was done in only 97 games, compared to 133 last year.
Even if he does get that average back up to where it was in 2007, the number of walks he draws concerns me. For a good leadoff hitter that number needs to be at least 50-60 walks a year. 2 of the best leadoff men that play today are Jose Reyes and Grady Sizemore, they worked 66 and 98 last year, respectively. That BB number MUST come up for him to be effective. A leadoff hitter needs to have some patience and work the count a little bit, not just hack away at the first pitch he sees ( that distinction should be saved for the cleanup hitter).
The runs scored have also been down, only 64 runs in each of the last two years. I don't know why that number is so low, the Rockies as a team were not terrible. They ranked 8th in runs scored and 6th in batting average. It makes me wonder if they were stupid mistakes made on the basepaths that got him thrown out. The runs scored were up around 80 each season when he played with Houston. To make the comparison again to Reyes and Sizemore, they both scored over 100 runs last season. Again, this number MUST come up for him to be effective. This number will rely more on teammates to drive him in but I don't think that will be a problem with the likes of Votto, Bruce, and Philips batting behind him, and possibly another heavy hitter should the front office get a deal done.
Overall I like this signing. Like I mentioned he's got some work to do if he wants to stay a leadoff hitter. At worst the CF position will turn into a platoon with Hopper (or someone else) or maybe he'll turn into a late inning defensive replacement and/or pinch runner. The $2.25 million next year isn't too much to be paying someone to fulfill that role. If he does more then we will certianly be getting our money's worth.
Keywords: Cincinnati Reds, Grady Sizemore, Jose Reyes, MLB, Norris Hopper, Willy Taveras
